Assessment of the size of financial investments in the economy as a result of structural changes in the Federal loan bond market

 The article is devoted to conducting a computational experiment and stress test based on the simulation model of non-residents’ participation in the Federal loan bond market constructed by the authors. The model is implemented on the basis of a discrete-stochastic formalization scheme. In the framework of mathematical modeling of non-residents’ participation in the Federal loan bond market, the key task is to determine the overall stability of the system and the degree of impact of critical events occurring in the market on the state economy, what helps to make informed management decisions to ensure economic security. As a result of the experiment, numerical estimates of the main characteristics of the market were obtained and the quality of the model in terms of its structural stability was checked. The impact of changes in the Federal loan bond market caused by the activities of non-residents on the exchange rate of the Russian ruble and on the yield of securities in future issues was assessed. The stress test is based on the assumption that non-residents simultaneously reset all Federal loan bonds that they hold. The results of a computational experiment and a stress test gave an assessment of investments in the Russian economy by the regulator that will be required if the described scenario is implemented.

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